Social Networks and Determining the "Next Big Thing"

A friend in marketing sent this question:

Q: I have a question for you. You seem pretty in tune with the social networking world...FB, Twitter, etc. I am looking to integrate some of these elements at work (beyond just linkedin) and also wanted to try and stay ahead of the curve. Was wondering if you had any thoughts on what the Next Big Thing might be? Are there any new mediums that you think have some real potential to be the next FB? Just curious what your thoughts are. Thanks!!

A: I don't claim any special knowledge about social networking, aside from being what I consider an 'advanced user' of technology. Oddly enough, the real experts are the kids that are using them, the generation coming up behind us, which I think is the target market you're going for, right? The key to seeing what we will be using tomorrow are the tools they are using today. Facebook and Myspace are prime examples of this, starting out with niche groups in target markets, they have both expanded beyond college students and music groups. 

Right now, though, there doesn't seem to be a 'next big thing' coming just yet, or in other words, there are several of them united around one key principle, integration. In the US (I'll get back to why this matters momentarily), Friendster and then, Myspace, had been the predominant social networks before Facebook. Facebook gained market share around college students and incoming college students, then young adults as those student graduated, and now, everyone. One of the factors that led to Facebook's domination of the medium was its ability to expand through open API's with applications that can be installed to user accounts. This has allowed integration with other services. Alongside Facebook's rise, Twitter began as a way to keep up with friends through short blurbs, and that it can be accessed using any SMS text enabled phone made it a boon to teens already using text messaging to keep up with friends. This created a synergy where SMS messages on cell networks updated through to the web with Twitter. Twitter can be integrated into Facebook through open API's, and Facebook can be integrated with numerous web services on it's own, like Youtube, Blogger, LiveJournal, etc. 
So in short, the next big thing is not any one thing, but any online services that are open, can be integrated with others, and tied into an online "net presence" for the user. Facebook does a pretty good job of this right now, but you never know, something else may come along that moves it from the dominant spot. I use Facebook because of that integration; I can send a Twitter from my phone and it shows up there, then on my blog. I can write a blog post on my laptop, and it is noted on Facebook. I can post a video with youtube on my desktop, and it's posted on Facebook. I use it because it ties my other services and devices together.
Mobile devices are and will be the single most important part of anything new. If you develop the most awesome social networking site ever known, and it can't be accessed or used on a mobile device, it's dead. Game over.
Going back to the issue of locality mentioned before, I had stated that this is true in the US. Social networks have been very regionally specific. For one reason or another, if you live in different countries, you may have more friends on certain providers. For example, in Brazil, Orkut, Google's social networking site, is very popular, yet most people in the US have never heard of it. In southeast Asia I think MSN is popular, and in other places, Yahoo has a strong following. So what we're talking about is US specific. 
As far as taking advantage of this in your field, if you were to ask me which social networking site to join, I would reply "all of them". The key is having the "net presence" I spoke of, and being able to watch the trends of what is more active, what isn't, and who is joining what. Less than half of my friends on Myspace overlap with my friends on Facebook, because they appeal to different people and different markets. I have a presence on LinkedIn, but I haven't touched it since the day my mother added me as a friend, because I now know that most things there are out of touch with where I want to be.

Let's break this down into three rules to finish up... 
1. Don't be afraid to try new things you hear about. 
2. If it's not on a mobile device, it will not succeed.
3. Different solutions will still appeal to different target demographics, but the key is drawing in as many as possible through open, cross-platform and device solutions.

This was written before Facebook's recent trip on their Terms of Use.  That situation is still developing, so it will be interesting in the next few days to see if it will have any effect at all on usage.